Monthly Decision Maker Panel data - March 2025

The March DMP survey was conducted between 7 and 21 March and received 2,264 responses.

Firms reported that their output prices rose by an average annual rate of 3.6% in the three months to March, 0.1 percentage points lower than the three months to February. Note that the DMP covers own prices from firms across the whole economy, not just consumer-facing firms.

Year-ahead own-price inflation was expected to be 3.9% in the three months to March, 0.1 percentage points lower than firms reported in the three months to February. Businesses therefore expect output price inflation to increase slightly over the next year, based on three-month averages.

Expectations for CPI inflation a year ahead rose from 3.1% to 3.2% in the three months to March. The corresponding measure for three-years ahead CPI inflation expectations was 2.8% in the three months to March, which was unchanged from the three months to February. 

Firms reported that annual wage growth was 5.0% in the three months to March, 0.2 percentage points lower than in the three months to February. Expected year-ahead wage growth remains unchanged at 3.9% on a three-month moving-average basis in March. Firms therefore expect their wage growth to decline by 1.1 percentage points over the next 12 months, based on three-month averages.

Realised annual employment growth has slowed over the past year and was reported to be 0.4% in the three months to March. Expectations for employment growth have also declined over recent months.  In the three months to March, firms expected employment to grow by 0.1% over the year ahead. This is the same as the three months to February and one percentage point lower than the three months to October.