Balfour Capital Group Releases 2025 Global Economic Outlook

YVERDON-LES-BAINS, SWITZERLAND, January 2, 2025 /EINPresswire.com/ -- Balfour Capital Group, led by CIO Steve Alain Lawrence and his world-class team, including Johan Boos, Division Head of Europe, and Vikram A. Srivastava, Division Head of Asia, has released its 2025 Global Economic Outlook. The report provides insights into economic prospects and challenges in the US, China, and Europe, emphasizing trade tensions, fiscal policies, and market risks.

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US Outlook: Growth Amid Policy Shifts
The S&P 500 is projected to deliver a 10% total return in 2025, supported by 2.5% GDP growth and moderating inflation (2.4%). Tax cuts and tariffs on China and autos may create mixed effects, balancing inflation pressures with economic stimulus.

The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates to 3.25–3.5%, while M&A activity should rise due to reduced regulation. Risks include elevated valuations, higher bond yields, and potential tariffs.

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China Outlook: Slower Growth, Policy Stimulus
China’s GDP growth is forecast at 4.5% in 2025, slowed by 20 percentage-point tariffs from the US, cutting 0.7% off GDP. Policymakers are expected to counterbalance with stimulus measures, prioritizing a shift toward technology-driven growth.

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Euro Area Outlook: Challenges Without Recession
The euro area is predicted to grow 0.8% in 2025, with Germany (-0.3%) and France (-0.7%) contracting, while Spain (+2.0%) outperforms. US tariffs on auto exports could reduce regional GDP by 0.5%, with Germany facing the greatest impact.

Despite fiscal tightening and structural headwinds, support from the European Recovery Fund is expected to help the region avoid a recession.

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Key Risks and Opportunities
Balfour Capital Group highlights:
• Tariffs and Trade Tensions: Heightened uncertainty and inflation pressures.
• Market Volatility: Elevated S&P 500 valuations may amplify downside risks.
• M&A Growth: Looser US regulations may boost deal-making.
• Mid-Cap Stocks: Attractive valuations and growth potential.

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About Balfour Capital Group
Balfour Capital Group is an investment financial firm that manages over $400 million in assets under management (AUM). We operate various funds that invest across a full array of asset classes globally. Under the leadership of Steve Alain Lawrence and his global team, we continue to expand our global footprint, providing premier economic insights and strategic advisory services.

Vikram Srivastava
Balfour Capital Group
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